Could climate change cause wars?

Climate change could make conflict more likely. That’s the stark message Admiral Neil Morisetti, the UK’s Climate and Energy Security Envoy, delivered to Korean military leaders during his visit to Seoul this week.

In his discussions, Admiral Morisetti said that climate change was an emerging threat to Britain’s and Korea’s national interests.  He called climate change a “risk multiplier” – it amplifies existing stresses around the world and increases the possibility of conflict.  And climate change affects everyone, no matter where we live in the world.  Take a look at this map to see what he means.

If you live in an area like northern Europe or North America it might be tempting to think that climate change won’t have much of an impact.  This map shows why that’s the wrong conclusion.  The black lines represent global trade routes.  As you can see, these run right through “areas of stress”, meaning areas where there are already water, food, energy or demographic challenges.  Climate Change will only make these worse.  Global trade matters to all of us but especially to countries like Korea and the UK. So no matter where we are in the world, it is in our interests to act to tackle the threat of climate change.

While was here, Admiral Morisetti visited the Korea Institute for Defence Analysis (KIDA).  It has just completed its own study on the potential impact of climate change on Korea’s national security.  The study found that climate change will bring new risks.  For example, it forecasts that the melting of the Arctic ice and the opening of the Northern Sea Route might save fuel and boost trade, but it could also lead to tensions among regional powers, including over oil and gas reserves.  It also found that climate change-induced extreme weather and poor harvests could lead to instability in North Korea.

But the discussions were not all about future threats: Admiral Morisetti spent a good part of his time talking about the opportunities of responding to climate change.  One of the key opportunities for the military is greater use of renewable energy.  For example, UK forces in Afghanistan have started to use solar power to charge batteries, a small but important step towards reducing reliance on fossil fuels, cutting costs and risks to life.  In 2010, UK forces in Afghanistan used 100 million gallons of fuel – each one costing ten times as much as a gallon in the UK. Every drop was transported by road via Karachi, posing a serious risk to life.

Admiral Morisetti’s meetings with experts here have certainly given me pause for thought. This is an unconventional threat but one which we must take seriously.  It’s clear to me that the Korean military is keen to do more work on this issue to get a better understanding of the risks and to seize the opportunities for change.  I look forward to more cooperation in this area between Korea and the UK.