Just in Shanghai to talk with a group of business people who were looking ahead at China's next year. I thought that you might be interested in the conversation.
2008 had been an extraordinary year. Snows in February, Tibet riots in March, worldwide Torch relay in April, Taiwan elections in April, Sichuan earthquake in May, the Olympics in August and Paralympics in September, and now the milk scandal as we moved towards the October national holiday next week.
Underlying this turbulence, and triumph, there were some reasons for confidence, and some for uncertainty. On the plus side, the relative resilience of the Chinese economy, the stability of the political leadership, after the last big change in personnel last October in the Party and in March this year in the Government, and China's international diplomacy - good relations with neighbours and the wider world.
But, like everywhere else, reasons for uncertainty too. It was not clear how much global financial turbulence would affect China. Protectionism was rising globally, and there was a danger we could all draw the wrong conclusion now - that closing down was a safer bet than opening up.It wasn't. The last Doha round was as big a missed opportunity for China as for the rest of us. And keeping markets in Europe and the US open depended also on China continuing to open up.
Internationally, China, like the rest of us, faced big choices - on how to handle North Korea and Iran, on how to continue building firm alliances with the US, Europe, and Japan, and a more difficult Russia. There were also choices about how to handle big thematic issues - in particular climate change. On many of these issues, China was the key swing vote - on climate change most of all. And the rest of the world wanted to hear more from China, on all these issues.
But the area of most interest was politics. No one had a clear answer on this. And of course it is a complex domestic debate. But one thing was very clear from all present. The West's interest in this issue was not borne of a desire to preach, or - more crazily - to destabilise. Rather it was borne of self interest. We all needed to understand China's direction of travel. The challenges we faced were shared. We needed China's growth, and wanted China's continued success. China had easy access to the politics of the West, and those who made decisions in it. We needed the same. Confidence and trust on both sides must grow. It would be at a premium in the coming years.
It was good to be in Shanghai - it is a refreshing, dynamic, cosmopolitan, commercial place. But I think the centre of debate on these last questions - the main focus of my work - is now, for the most part, in Beijing rather than outside it. So I am heading back.
Posted at 11:54 22 September 2008 by Peter Wilson | Comments[0]
- Share this with:
-
-
-
-
-
It has been great to see how many people read this blog over August, and I am sorry I have been so lousy about posting in September. I've got two (happy) reasons, and no excuses - a) paralympics; b) politicians. I will explain. First, the Paralympics. This has been a great event, hard to believe it is now over. Packed venues, fantastic sport, compelling stories. Sir Philip Craven, chair of the International Paralympic Association, said it would 'inspire and amaze' - it did, and he said in a moving speech at the closing ceremony that this was the best Paralympics ever. Many have been introduced to sports that are new to them. Mónica, my wife, and I took our two elder children to goal ball on the weekend: three aside, all players blind, objective - to roll (or bounce) a ball containing bells into the opponents' large goal. The tactics were dramatic, scoring was surprisingly hard, but most compelling was the silence. Everyone, including our five and four year olds, was transfixed, and the tension, as the players followed the sound, was thick and intense. When goals were scored, the pent up energy of the crowd was immense. We were lucky enough to go to the Handover Party after the Games, too, to celebrate with Paralympics GB. I won't forget the emotion in that room, the pride in our athletes' achievement, and the feeling that anything is possible. Second, the politicians. This was the second year of the Leadership of the Future Forum, organised by the Great Britain China Centre in London, and the International Liaison Department (ILD) of the Communist Party in Beijing. The first meeting was in the UK, in November last year. Last week was the first meeting in China. Younger politicians from the three leading UK parties, led by John Prescott and Malcolm Rifkind, came to discuss our different political systems, and the relationship between Europe and China, with some of China's key politicians and political theorists. The ILD were generous hosts, and very frank. There is a lively debate here, but it is often not very visible to the outside world (for a good introduction, tho', try Mark Leonard's latest and very readable book, What Does China Think?). These party to parties discussions are creating a space in which we can discuss differences and build common ground, as well as build personal connections that we hope will last a generation. This becomes more important as our dependence on each other increases, and as we each country matters more to the other's future. There is considerable enthusiasm from both sides for more of this. The next meeting of this group will be in the UK, in the autumn of next year. Our politicians and the Paralympics connected, too. The Forum group, like everyone else, were hugely impressed, by our team, by China's organisation, and by the sheer excitement of the sport. A running theme through our formal talks, in that heady period last week when the UK and China were neck and neck in the gold medals race, was the latest medal tally. Of course that's not what it was all about. But it was fun - and we competed with our hosts for who had the most up to date information. Slips of paper were passed from the side of the room in all our meetings, and over dinner, too. Next stop London, where the competition will be friendly and fierce. A question many ask here in Beijing - what should China's next big project be? Please let me know what you think.
Posted at 08:01 18 September 2008 by Peter Wilson | Comments[2]
- Share this with:
-
-
-
-
-
The Olympics ends, and Paralympics starts soon
Many people in the Embassy, along with just around everyone else in Beijing, were involved with the Olympics in some way. And most of us have been trying to find a chance to have a quick rest, because the Paralympics, the world's second largest event, will start next week.
For Team GB, this was an astonishing Olympics. Best performance since 1908. Chris Hoy's three and Rebecca Adlington's two great golds. Some heroic individual stories, and extraordinary discipline from very determined athletes. On the Embassy side, we had just under 2,000 guests at events in the course of the Games - to welcome the athletes, promote trade and inward investment, London 2012 and our training facilities across the country. Seven high level visitors came, culminating in the Prime Minister's visit for the closing ceremony, a substantive meeting and later a lunch with President Hu, and a meeting followed by dinner with Premier Wen. We ran an operations centre round the clock for the duration of the Games, to co-ordinate all the different activities, provide help to British nationals who needed it, and collect learning points for 2012: we are analysing those lessons now. Thanks to the Prime Minister's personal intervention, one of those detained for demonstrating about Tibet was released and put on a plane hours before the Prime Minister himself left Beijing.
And this Olympics was a great moment for China. The Prime Minister called it a "spectacular" Olympics. Jacques Rogge, President of the IOC said that "the world learned more about China, and China more about the rest of the world" A lot of very helpful volunteers must have breathed a sigh of relief, and gone home to bed. I hope many proud Chinese athletes will be celebrating their success, although I guess, like the British athletes, many of them will have already started to train again.
The Chinese press have been writing a lot about what the success at this Games means for China. The Communist Party's leading newspaper, the People's Daily, said on 25 August that "the opportunity of the Olympics has allowed us to calmly show a more open and self confident China after 30 years of reform and opening up". The Chinese Youth Daily said that China's "people have never been so optimistic and self confident, so full of faith in their country's advancement". I hope that is how China feels about itself. Certainly for the rest of the world, which wants to engage with China, and wants China to do more in the world on so many issues, China's increased confidence on the world stage is something we want too.
People around town in Beijing are definitely very cheerful. And sport is a great subject to talk about. With more than 50 nations winning gold, and 80 taking medals, it seems that everyone has something happy to remember. The Prime Minister had been to Afghanistan on his way to Beijing - the Afghan bronze medallist in Taekwondo was their first ever medallist, he said, and was a huge source of pride.
There's a brief respite now, before the Paralympics begins on 6 September, and runs to 17 September. 145 countries will take part in 20 sports. Paralympic GB aims to come second in the medal table, as it did in Athens. That's a tall order, in some highly competitive sports. The way they work is interesting -in particular blind football, which is played five aside, with one sighted goalie, and using a special sound in the ball to follow its movement. Wheelchair basketball and wheelchair rugby are both supposed to be fierce, although I'm told by a leading paralympian that these days victory depends more on skill than force. There are few tickets left, and sprinting and swimming events have already completely sold out...
Posted at 17:05 28 August 2008 by Peter Wilson | Comments[0]
- Share this with:
-
-
-
-
-
Beijing is into the final strait as it gears up for the Olympics. The most visible change is in the traffic: half the cars have been taken off the road. If your plate ended in an even number on Sunday, you got to drive. Today, Monday, it is the turn of the odd numbers. But what's left is more tightly squeezed: the Olympic lanes on key thoroughfares are being kept clear for cars with special passes, so they are almost completely empty. Skies are a bit bluer, too, as rules kick in to end big construction projects and halt production in the most polluting industries for the period of the Olympics and Paralympics in September.
There are other big changes too. The metro system when I worked in Beijing ten years ago had only two lines, which rarely went where you wanted to go, so most people biked. The lines occupied tunnels built by Mao to withstand a Soviet atom bomb. Today Beijing has a network of metro and light rail that is 220km long (only London and New York are longer). Three new lines have been built in time for the Olympics. A metro line opened up on the weekend from the airport to a downtown transport hub (that happens to be right outside our house). You can fly into Beijing and reach the centre of the city in 30 minutes, for under £2 - and then go anywhere else on the metro system for under 20p. Line 10 also opened on the weekend - it links the Capital Business District on the East side of town (where almost all foreign Embassies are, and where many foreigners live) with the high tech zone near the universities in the West. Line 8 - the Olympic line - is ready too. But it will not open until 8 August, the first day of the Games.
I took a ride on Line 10 on the weekend, to try it out. So did a lot of other cheerful people, who went to see the Bird's Nest Stadium from the southern bit of the Olympic park. Some of the big Olympic hotels next to the stadium have large TV screens on the front, which seem to broadcast only sport. A small army of young volunteers has already started to help people out, at the airport, in the subway, and across the city. They have ready smiles, and good English. They are a good face for Beijing.
Thanks for more comments. Mark said that Tian's message meant maybe more things can now be read in China. This blog can be. I checked over the weekend. Hope it stays up.
Posted at 12:10 21 July 2008 by Peter Wilson | Comments[3]
- Share this with:
-
-
-
-
-