Peter Wilson

China's politics

Just in Shanghai to talk with a group of business people who were looking ahead at China's next year. I thought that you might be interested in the conversation.

2008 had been an extraordinary year. Snows in February, Tibet riots in March, worldwide Torch relay in April, Taiwan elections in April, Sichuan earthquake in May, the Olympics in August and Paralympics in September, and now the milk scandal as we moved towards the October national holiday next week.

Underlying this turbulence, and triumph, there were some reasons for confidence, and some for uncertainty. On the plus side, the relative resilience of the Chinese economy, the stability of the political leadership, after the last big change in personnel last October in the Party and in March this year in the Government, and China's international diplomacy - good relations with neighbours and the wider world.

But, like everywhere else, reasons for uncertainty too. It was not clear how much global financial turbulence would affect China. Protectionism was rising globally, and there was a danger we could all draw the wrong conclusion now - that closing down was a safer bet than opening up.It wasn't. The last Doha round was as big a missed opportunity for China as for the rest of us. And keeping markets in Europe and the US open depended also on China continuing to open up.

Internationally, China, like the rest of us, faced big choices - on how to handle North Korea and Iran, on how to continue building firm alliances with the US, Europe, and Japan, and a more difficult Russia. There were also choices about how to handle big thematic issues - in particular climate change. On many of these issues, China was the key swing vote - on climate change most of all. And the rest of the world wanted to hear more from China, on all these issues.

But the area of most interest was politics. No one had a clear answer on this. And of course it is a complex domestic debate. But one thing was very clear from all present. The West's interest in this issue was not borne of a desire to preach, or - more crazily - to destabilise. Rather it was borne of self interest. We all needed to understand China's direction of travel. The challenges we faced were shared. We needed China's growth, and wanted China's continued success. China had easy access to the politics of the West, and those who made decisions in it. We needed the same. Confidence and trust on both sides must grow. It would be at a premium in the coming years.

It was good to be in Shanghai - it is a refreshing, dynamic, cosmopolitan, commercial place. But I think the centre of debate on these last questions - the main focus of my work - is now, for the most part, in Beijing rather than outside it. So I am heading back.

Posted at 11:54 22 September 2008 by Peter Wilson  |  Comments[0]

China - where change is a constant theme

Today is my first day blogging. I am the British Embassy's Political Counsellor in China . That means I run a team that covers China's internal politics, its relationship with the rest of the world, our press and public affairs operation here, and our bilateral relationship with China. I am also responsible for the Olympic attache at the Embassy (one of the more unusual Foreign Office jobs) and his team.   

I am just back from two weeks away in Europe. It was just under a month to go at the Olympics.  Even with only two weeks to go, there's been change. I just got off at Beijing's new terminal three that opened in March - a Norman Foster design, that is bigger than the whole of Heathrow, tho' nowhere near as full. The airport is gearing up: young Olympic volunteers, friendly airport staff, and luggage out five minutes after I was. Not many using the Olympic channel yet, said one of the border control officials, but better to be prepared. A lot of smiles and friendliness.

Now coming back into town.  Coming in on a new road, that was not open when I left two weeks ago - not unusual for Beijing!. A second airport express way, just opened for the Olympics. It is good, tho' I am getting a bit lost now coming in a new way, past buildings that were not here a year and a half ago. The one thing I already miss, tho', is the blue skies I have been enjoying on holiday. Most Chinese still live in the countryside. But the cities, which are growing as rapidly as the economy, are polluted. Beijing's skies are grey (and it is double the size it was a decade ago).  Climate change is a big issue for this Embassy. Domestic environmental pollution, and energy conservation, are key issues for China's top politicians, because the public cares about it now, and because it makes economic sense.

Change is a constant  theme here. It is hard to get perspective on a place moving as fast as China is . I've now been back in China a year and a half, after almost ten years working on other things. I first came to Beijing in 1981, briefly, when I was 13. I came back in March 1989 as a student on vacation. And then not again until 1994, when I was studying  Mandarin in the Foreign Office (I had two years training, full time, one in London and one in Beijing) . My first posting was here , in our Commercial Section , helping British companies enter the China market . I left in 1998.  Even if blogs had existed then, the political climate here would have made it impossible to write one. That is not so true any more - although I am not sure this will be easy to access from a Chinese terminal.  But I thought it would be worth having a go, to see. 
 
There is plenty of material out there now in English to help form an impression of this country that now matters so much for all of us. And there are some really excellent British perpectives. James Kynge's China Shakes the World, published three years ago now, is still my favourite book about modern China.  Rana Mitter's Short Introduction to Modern China, which came out earlier this year, is really imaginative.  More and more British people are coming to see China for themselves: 600,000 visited last year. That exchange is two way - Chinese students are the largest foreign student community in the UK, with more than 60,000 students. I do not know who might read this, but I hope that perhaps some of those students will, and will comment.

Posted at 15:13 10 July 2008 by Peter Wilson  |  Comments[4]