David Warren

Waiting for the emissions reductions target

The big issue at the moment - probably at any moment - is climate change.  We are all waiting for the Japanese Prime Minister to announce Japan's mid-term target for emissions reductions.  This will be a crucial element in the preparations for the Copenhagen conference at the end of the year to agree a follow up framework to Kyoto.  An intense debate is taking place here. 

An advisory committee has produced six scenarios, from minus 25% to plus 4% on 1990 levels.  The latter is favoured by the Keidanren, the Japanese industrial federation.  I don't believe that it will be seen internationally as a credible response by Japan to the urgent need for developed countries to take the difficult decision and make major cuts.  The other major industrial federation, the Keizai Doyukai, have gone for minus 7%.  Even this strikes me as insufficiently ambitious on its own.  The discussion in the Japanese press tends to focus on fairness and whether Japan can afford the costs of the action that some are pressing it to take now.  But the costs will get worse if we delay, and the issue isn't fairness - it's how all of us in developed countries show global responsibility and bring the developing world into the negotiation. 

Many of my meetings with Japanese industry and government are focused on this issue, and how the debate can be brought to address the benefits, rather than just the costs, of action now.

Posted at 16:45 20 May 2009 by David Warren  |  Comments[0]