Simon Shercliff

First Secretary Foreign Security and Policy Washington

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Wednesday 18 November, 2009

Politics is a continuation of war by other means...

This seems to be a neat way - by paraphrasing Clausewitz - of describing how David Miliband characterises the complexity of the Counter insurgency strategy that we are pursuing in Afghanistan. In his speech yesterday to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, he added more flesh to the bones of our political strategy which he had first set out in public in July of this year, also to a NATO audience. The key messages are simple: 

  • "In the UK we support the prosecution of a serious counter-insurgency effort in Afghanistan. We do not see that as an alternative to counter-terrorism, but as the best means to achieve it"
  • "we all agree that there can be no purely military solution; so let's take that mantra seriously"... recognise that we will succeed in Afghanistan only when our military resources and development assistance are aligned behind a clear political strategy"
  • "The goals of a political strategy are clear: to unite a critical mass of the key players behind shared goals - AQ kept out, the different tribal groups {that make up the rich heritage of Afghanistan] kept onside, and the neighbours prepared to play a constructive role in Afghanistan's future"
  • "I stress that a political strategy is not separate from a military strategy, or vice-versa. Each must be part of a single whole". 
  • And finally, the framework of the political strategy: "To be successful the political strategy must address three audiences. First, the Afghan people and their loyalty: to reassure and mobilise citizens to resist the Taliban, military effort to improve security must be allied to civilian effort to improve governance especially at the local level. Second, the insurgents and their determination to fight: military pressure to beat back the insurgency must be combined with support to flip sides rather than fight or run away. Third, Afghanistan’s neighbours: a new relationship must be forged between Afghanistan and its neighbours, based on the understanding that Afghanistan’s future is not as a client of any, but as a secure country in its own right." 

 

Please do click through and read the whole speech - the detail contained therein is our most comprehensive policy statement on where we need to go next in Afghanistan.

Posted at 09:32 18 November 2009 by Simon Shercliff  |  Comments[0]

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Wednesday 19 August, 2009

Looking forward in Afghanistan

Nearly there now - the Afghan Presidential and Provincial Council elections happen on Thursday this week. Plenty has been said and written about them already, so I will not add much more here. Suffice to say that President Obama has often described these elections as "the most important event in Afghanistan this year". They are hugely important, for us all - elections that are perceived by the Afghan people as credible, inclusive and secure will provide momentum to the task that we are all engaged in: helping Afghanistan stand on its own as a self-confident, robust state which can repel the likes of Al Qaida from ever again taking root in their country. In spite of the mood of intimidation which the Taliban are trying desprately to forge (including those two terrible suicide attacks in Kabul over the last couple of days), I hope that the Afghan people will participate wholeheartedly, and with optimism that these elections will help them along their difficult path.
 
In addressing the ongoing insurgency and forthcoming elections, David Miliband wrote Monday in the Daily Telegraph that "whether military breakthroughs are translated into strategic success depends on politics". Essentially this means that  "only legitimate, clean and competent Afghan government, recognising local tribal structures as well as national democratic ones, can provide an alternative focus for loyalty [for the Afghan people]. Effective protection and a better life is the best way to keep the insurgency at bay". And once the elections are over, that "there are three priorities for the new government if it is to defeat the insurgency and build a more stable and prosperous state". These are: 

 

  • a clear determination to protect the interests of ordinary Afghans - this means better governance. 
  • a strategy to reconcile and reintegrate insurgents prepared to give up violence.
  • better cooperation with Afghanistan's neighbours, particularly Pakistan.

 

He concludes that "the next Afghan government has a duty to show its determination to root out corruption, the dedication to build a state that properly protects its people and the vision to build an inclusive political settlement. In that work they deserve strong international support. Britain's job is to be part of that effort".
 
Readers might like to link through to this new site just published by the British Government's Afghan unit in London. It pulls together all of our relevant material on the forthcoming Afghan elections, plus further links to other interesting articles, including a blog by Lisa Bandari, one of my political officer colleagues out in the British Embassy in Kabul, who has been following the elections build-up closely for several months.

Posted at 09:33 19 August 2009 by Simon Shercliff  |  Comments[0]

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Tuesday 28 July, 2009

The political elements of our Afghanistan Strategy

While many column inches have been devoted in recent weeks to the actions of the British military in Helmand (including by me last week), yesterday at NATO, our Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, outlined the key political elements of our Afghanistan strategy. After stating clearly that our objective in 2001 - the need to deny Al Qaeda a base from which to launch attacks on the world - still holds true in 2009, the basic thrust of his speech was that we can support the Afghan government in dismantling the insurgency which still threatens to provide that base by using the dual approach of military power and political engagement.

It has long been accepted wisdom that military force alone can not achieve lasting success in a counter-insurgency campaign. The role of military operations, such as those currently being conducted by British troops in Helmand, alongside their US and Afghan counterparts, is to deny insurgents the space to operate. Clearing and holding territory allows the Afghan government to extend its reach, delivering basic governance, justice and development. But whether military gains are translated into strategic success will ultimately depend on whether the insurgency is also undermined by politics.

David Miliband said that the future of Afghanistan must be shaped by three political strategies:

  • a strategy for dealing with the insurgency through reconciliation and reintegration, leading to an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that draws in conservative Pashtun nationalists (providing, of course, they renounce violence and agree to abide by the Afghan political system).
  • a strategy for reassuring the wider Afghan population that they have a secure future under the legitimate Afghan government - which will depend on credible, clean government at provincial and district level, working with the grain of tribal Afghan society - and that the international community will stand by them as long as our support is needed (which will be long after the last combat troops have left)
  • a strategy for ensuring that Afghanistan's neighbours (including Iran and Pakistan) accept that Afghanistan's future is to be a secure country in its own right, in which each of its neighbours have a responsible and open stake - a friend to all and a client to none, in other words

 

He finished by setting out the priorities for the next six months, as seen by the British government: the Afghan presidential elections on 20 August must be credible and inclusive. The winning candidate must not only present a clear manifesto, but move quickly to implement it. The biggest shift in 'burden-sharing' must be towards the Afghan state assuming greater responsibility. In Pakistan, the international community must forge a new, sustained and long-term partnership focused in backing civilian institutions and democratic government. 

In other words, politics can and must succeed in Afghanistan.

Posted at 08:55 28 July 2009 by Simon Shercliff  |  Comments[0]

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