Simon Shercliff

No short-term fix to Pakistan's problems

The terrible suicide attack at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad last weekend has caused me to step back and reflect. Like everyone else, I was shocked at its brutality, and send my condolences to all involevd. 

Pakistan is precariously poised, no doubt. On the one hand it suffers from instability in its border areas, which we all fear will spread to militancy and terrorism outside Pakistan. On the other its economy badly needs a shot in the arm - essentially a huge and complex package of aid  - and its newly elected civilian government needs all the support it can get.

We, the US and others all want to help and support the new government of Pakistan in its tough task ahead; gatherings of foreign ministers in New York this week are bringing coherence to this. But there is tension there: one problem requires the tactics and tools of a hard-core security strategy, complete with military hardware and trainers; the other necessitates long-term political and developmental strategies adressing educational needs and institutional reform. Inevitably the former wins the priority battle when plans for terrorist activity are either uncovered or, much worse, carried out. But both are needed in a sustained manner. We all must keep a sense of perspective, and our eyes fixed on the long-term goal. I thought this editorial in the respected Pakistani newspaper The Dawn helped to remind us of that need.

Posted at 08:47 29 September 2008 by Simon Shercliff  |  Comments[1]

Solving the Iran Puzzle. Whose problem is it anyway?

Iran is a complex country. Everyone agrees with that. "We" (which at different times over the last few years has meant the UK, UK/France/Germany, Europe, the E3 plus US, the E3+3 - almost any combination of the membership of the international community) are all worried about the notion of Iran getting a nuclear weapon.

Rightly so - the prospects of yet another broadside being fired into the Non Proliferation Treaty (the only legitimate piece of global architechture out there which has a chance of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons technology); an arms race in the Middle East; and of course President Ahmadinejad's rhetorical blasts at Israel being backed by real weapons, are all highly toxic.

Yesterday I attended a symposium at the US Marine Corps University at Quantico where a wide-ranging presence attempted to address the Iran puzzle. Unsurprisingly there were no silver bullets discovered - if there were any out there, the huge numbers of highly qualified brains who have been thinking about this for years now would have found them. Instead we all concluded that the jigsaw puzzle must be solved by steady, sustained and comprehensive effort, using all the tools available to us. Some of those tools involve pressure, and some engagement. And a key element of the solution is turning the "we" into one team, all pulling in the same direction with both pressure and engagement.

Posted at 09:37 22 September 2008 by Simon Shercliff  |  Comments[1]