Nigel Sheinwald

The Perils of Four Degrees

Today in London, our Secretaries for Foreign Affairs and Climate, David and Ed Miliband, published the latest findings from the UK's foremost climate change science research institution - the Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre. Their conclusions are sobering, and come less than 50 days before the world's governments meet in Copenhagen, Denmark, for the United Nations climate change negotiations.

The scientists as the Hadley Centre have produced a map detailing the impact across the world of a global temperature rise of 4 degrees centigrade (7 degrees Fahrenheit).   This risk is real.  Respected scientists, using the best available scientific and climate data, are now concluding that, if emissions continue to rise, we could see this kind of dangerous global increase in temperatures within our lifetimes.

The map makes clear that not all countries would be affected in the same way by such a rise. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and areas of higher latitude, particularly the Arctic, will have much larger temperature increases. The impacts for the human race are shocking and profound.  The map flags only a small selection of these, but they include severe effects on water availability, food production, and rising sea levels.

The US does not escape these. Tropical storms and hurricanes could become more frequent and intense, putting America's coastal populations at greater risk of disaster.  In the interior, the risks of major forest fires will increase, whilst agricultural production decreases. And major US cities such as New York, Washington DC, and Chicago could experience an increase in their hottest days of the year by as much as 18-22°F, affecting more than 30 million Americans.

This is not apocalyptic scaremongering: these are the best assessments by leading British scientists based on the most recent research.  So we need to listen, and act.

This is no longer just an environmental issue: it's geo-political. Profound changes like these risk creating a more unstable and divided world, with intensified competition for dwindling resources, and all the implications for global security that flow from that.

The British government is committed to avoiding this 4c degree rise. We need to minimise the risks of these catastrophic developments by making sure that we ensure global temperatures don't rise by more than 2c degrees. And that's why an international agreement at Copenhagen this December is so important - for all our future security and prosperity.

Posted at 11:58 22 October 2009 by Nigel Sheinwald  |  Comments[1]