David Miliband

Trade up

In the blizzard of briefing for the G20 summit and associated bilaterals I was informed that despite the recession UK exports to Russia grew by 46 percent in 2008. Pretty extraordinary and good. Trade with Russia is beneficial to us both.

Posted at 10:47 01 April 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[3]

Prime Minister Rudd

I first met Kevin Rudd in the 1990s. He combines strong values and high levels of technical competence - both on display during his Marr interview yesterday. His government web page  is pretty good too. He has worked very closely with our Prime Minister in the G20 economic process, and as President Obama made clear at his press conference last week, has left an impression in Washington too. Prime Minister Rudd has some choice Australian words for the idea that the London Summit has failed before it has begun. It's a British thing to knock your own ideas; for most of the leaders involved there is still a lot to play for, and the substance of the agreement already registered is substantial. To be fair the FT leader made this point yesterday - as has Will Hutton in the Observer and Anatole Kaletsky in the Times. One other point: the G20 process has ALREADY led to commitments in areas like tax havens that people previously said were impossible.

Posted at 16:42 31 March 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[3]

Foreign Policy in a Recession

Everyone is talking about it, so why shouldn't the Foreign Office?  The truth is that the economic downturn around the world will affect foreign policy, and the fortunes of different countries.  One set of debates are clear - nationalism vs internationalism. A major challenge of the London Summit  is to address the danger of economic nationalism.

But as I said in my speech to the FCO Leadership Conference, there are still a lot of unknowns.  About political risks in exposed countries. About the fortunes of countries dependent for public revenue on commodities like oil. It is the job of foreign policy to shape multilateral institutions - to minimise the political risks to stability, and to maximise the pressure for rights and responsibilities to be balanced.

Its not clear who the real winners and losers will be.  At the moment no one is winning.  If the result is a stronger multilateral system, we all can get a share of the upturn. 

Posted at 14:33 26 March 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[3]

Countdown to London Summit

It is ten days until the London summit I said on my way into the European Council last Thursday that there was a media debate and a real debate about the contents of the conclusions.  The media debate is that there is a great Euro-American falling out over whether better financial regulation or fiscal stimulus is needed.  The truth is that there needs to be both and no leader now denies it. 

I see a graduated series of proposals - from the detailed to the exhortatory.  On financial regulation the Washington summit established four working groups to look in detail at 47 different regulatory issues.  That detailed work will be brought to London for some decisions.  But the agenda has been broadened by the Pirme Minister to reflect that this is an economic crisis not just a financial crisis. 

In interviews with journalists especially from the emerging countries and developing world I have been struck by the extent to which the fact of the summit's broad agenda and their leaders' participation is seen as a chance to rebalance economic policy and who it serves. On trade it is striking to hear Brazilians and Africans talk with passion about the importance of increased trade to fighting the crisis.  One day cant solve everything but it can introduce a dynamic of practical reform.

Posted at 18:16 23 March 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[0]

Russia: Present, ish

My session at the Munich Security Conference was entitled "Nato, Russia, Oil and Gas".  John McCain pulled out because of the Senate's debate of the UK Stimulus Package.  But I was sorry that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov shifted from this session to a discussion on disarmament.  It left the panel without a Russian voice - other than the speaker in the audience who complained about the lack of Russian representation.

I said in my speech that we had to have the confidence to be clear in our own principles but also understand how Russia saw things if we were to find a way to shape a non zero sum relationship.  Vice President Biden touched on this in his speech which managed to be forceful and humble at the same time.  I agree with Andrew Kuchins and Samuel Charap in the IHT that the economic recession increases the potential for Western/Russian cooperation.  It would be the ultimate irony if nuclear disarmament through restarted US/Russia talks provided the salve for the US/Russia relationship .
 

Posted at 11:04 09 February 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[7]

EU-China

The visit of Premier Wen to Brussels, before his trip to London, involved an announcement of renewed EU/China cooperation.  In the talks over the last 3 days in London the EU was a significant presence – as a trade block and partner above all, and an institution where the Chinese want Britain to have a strong view.  The two PM’s announced a new drive in bilateral trade and inter cooperation, for example on climate change; but this goes side by side with stronger European ties, not at the expense of them.

Posted at 10:58 03 February 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[5]

Big year for UK-China relations

2008 marked for many people a symbolic turning point in China's place in the world in august China hosted a stunning Olympics. In the autumn the world sought China's help in tackling the economic crisis. It is in recognition of China's emerging global role that the FCO yesterday published the UK-China Strategic Framework. The rationale is simple; between now and 2012 we have a special opportunity to raise the level and productivity of relations between Britain and China, at the level of government business and people to people contacts including education.  

I launched the framework at the Manchester Chinese arts centre yesterday.  Manchester boasts the third largest Chinese community in Europe and Manchester University has one of the largest Chinese student populations in Britain (out of about 75,000 Chinese students in Britain - the biggest number in Europe).

The Framework focuses on cooperation on the economy, climate change, international security and gives proper attention to dialogue on issues of human rights.   I think it is valuable.

Posted at 19:08 23 January 2009 by David Miliband  |  Comments[9]

Will the economic downturn fell the climate change campaign or can the climate campaign help fight the downturn?

This US think tank report provides one answer, along with Lord Stern's article in the Guardian last week. The headline is that the report suggests spending $100billion over 2 years to fundamentally change US production and consumption of energy which would create 2 million new jobs nation-wide. It suggests spending would eventually be paid back to the Treasury by a future cap and trade programme. Green issues feature in both US Presidential campaigns.
 

Posted at 15:47 27 October 2008 by David Miliband  |  Comments[8]

Buyers' Remorse

The European Council will be remembered for the confidence of the European proposals for global financial regulation. We are not going to argue about where credit belongs for their creation: suffice to say they are ideas with which we are more than comfortable.

But the Council has set the scene for a very serious discussion between now and December about how the EU is to meet the ambitious climate change goals that were agreed in March 2007. There is no question that some of those who have doubts about the climate change agenda, or still don't believe in the economics of climate change after Nicholas Stern's report, are getting buyers' remorse about the March 2007 deal. But what is their argument?

Surely not that we can avoid making decisions in December. By then a new US President will be giving indications of how he plans to handle this issue. We cannot end up in a situation where Europe does not have a climate change position and America does. Nor that we should revisit the targets (no one actually suggested this at this Council).

Nor, on the other side, that there does not need to be proper recognition in the final package of the particular situations of different countries or the need for cost effectiveness in the way the climate agenda is pursued.

In the event this was early sparring. But stick to the targets and it doesn't matter that much how they are hit - more energy efficiency, more renewables, more nuclear, they all count towards a low carbon agenda.

Posted at 17:18 16 October 2008 by David Miliband  |  Comments[3]

Economic Stability Plan

I was in Brussels yesterday for talks in the European Parliament and European Commission.  Everyone is trying to come to terms with the financial crisis, and anticipate (and if possible mitigate) its impact on the wider economy. In that context the Stability Plan announced by the Prime Minister and Chancellor has drawn widespread admiration as the most systematic - and system wide - programme on the table.  Addressing the three interlinked problems of liquidity, solvency and confidence through three major initiatives the plan builds on the coordinated principles agreed by European finance ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday.  As such it is a strong basis for complementary action by other European governments.

Posted at 11:36 09 October 2008 by David Miliband  |  Comments[8]