John Duncan

Ambassador for Multilateral Arms Control & Disarmament

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Monday 30 March, 2009

THE ARMS TRADE: LAW AND ECONOMICS

Stuck in Washington after the ASIL conference (see last post) before calls next week, and with the G20 dominating the news set me thinking about one of the questions the sceptics often ask – Why do we need a new treaty surely we just need nations to act more responsibly?

Well its true a new treaty is not going to solve the problems by itself – you can’t simply legislate for responsible behaviour. We can’t even manage that domestically.

Most countries have laws against speeding and despite all the law enforcement of  national police and courts, people still break the law. Why would we imagine that a new law would work at the international level where we don’t have anything comparable in terms of law enforcement.

Ah! say the sceptics then you admit the ATT won’t work.

No, It will work because the ATT is a more complex idea than that. It started out as an effort to tackle Human Rights and Humanitarian issues. And those are still at its heart and important reasons for taking action.

But there are perfectly good economic reasons for nations to behave responsibly. In one sense the ATT is the mechanism to allow us to focus those economic drivers.

Development: huge amounts of aid money have been spent dealing with the effects of our failure to properly regulate the arms trade. We simply can’t continue in the current financial climate to see our efforts to make progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals undermined like this. We are going to have to regulate the arms trade much better than we have.

Industrial co-operation: many of the major arms suppliers restructured into global companies over a decade ago. The current patchwork of controls is clearly not working. Worse because the there are no common international standards it has prevented industrial cooperation and inward investment. Putting the arms trade onto a sound regulatory footing would increase confidence and gradually allow greater cooperation where the sanction for “irresponsible” behaviour would be that companies would be unwilling to co-operate, or trade with those who do not meet the international standard.

In his speech to Britain’s ambassadors last week David Miliband said that“ Economic risk needs to be addressed by a political bargain” this is very much the heart of what an ATT process entails; understanding the link between politics and economics, achieving a synergy between the moral and the self interested approach. As we have seen with the Kimberly Process, or Blood Diamonds, it is quite possible to use economic interest to produce a result that meets a moral imperative.

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There may indeed be good economic reasons for nations to behave responsibly - in addition to the obvious security reasons that would make an ATT favourable to many states that suffer from unregulated flows of arms to illegitimate domestic actors. However, my limited understanding of the ATT is that signatories would have to implement domestic legislature and have a domestic infrastructure in place to enforce the treaty: surely there will be massive disparity between states who have the resources to do so or the will to do so and those who do not? What about the role of MNCs who are not engaged in importing arms into unstable states but yet do engage in arming groups for economic reasons, to guard infrastructure etc with weapons already in circulation?

Posted by Oliver Lewis on March 30, 2009 at 01:05 PM BST #

Dear Oliver You make a good point. Our vision of the ATT is not to create some huge multinational architcture to control the trade. High standards but minimum buracracy is the ideal. That said, some capacity building will probably needed and some of this work is already underway under the UN Programme of Action to control Small Arms and Light Weapons SALW. On MNCs, they are as you say playing an increasing role, but they should not be purchasing and deploying weapons without the agreement of the state where they intend to use them. Language to cover this point was discussed in the UN discusions last year. John

Posted by John Duncan on March 31, 2009 at 01:05 PM BST #

Dear Mr Miliband It is now accepted fact that between 300 and 500 innocent women and children were reported killed by the IDF, in Gaza, last January, for no apparent reason other than to terrorise the civilian population. These victims of alleged gratuitous killing were unarmed and defenceless and could not have posed any threat, military or otherwise, to the invading force. That would appear to constitute a prima facie case to answer of a war crime, as defined under international law and the Geneva Conventions. No warrant has, as yet, been issued for the apprehension of those responsible for this alleged crime. However, we do know that at least two Israeli ministers authorized and were aware of the killings: they are Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak. It has been reported that the latter is to be appointed Minister of Defence in the new Israeli cabinet and, as such, will presumably be someone who you will be required to communicate and negotiate with in the coming months. Is it the position, therefore, that the UK government is prepared to: 1. take no action to ensure that those alleged responsible for such mass killings are brought before an international court to answer charges of war crime, and 2. welcome either one or more of those so alleged criminally responsible, to Britain as a bona fide representative of a democratic state, and 3. continue to sanction bilateral arms deals and other trade with Israel knowing that that state is in gross breach of its obligations not only of the Geneva Conventions but also of its specific undertakings regarding human rights contained within the EU-Israel Association Agreement of which it is a signatory?

Posted by Michael Halpern on April 01, 2009 at 10:56 PM BST #

distinguished mr.duncan i'm from lebanon and i was chosen to participate to the MODEL UNITED NATION program and i'm representing the united kingdom. i have to give my position paper this saturday that is about disarmament and international tehcnology and i had a few questions regarding the uks position. i have seen pretty much of ur works but i had a question about ur lecture during the OEWG u said 'A Feasible ATT would be an international effort to deal with a real world issue: that the absence of common international standards on the import, export and transfer of conventional arms is a contributory factor to conflict, the displacement of people, crime and terrorism, thereby undermining peace, reconciliation, safety, security, stability and sustainable development' but still the united kingdom is one of the world top ten producers of weapons, landmines and light weapons i know that i can't talk negatively about uk and i have to stick to uks position but how can i defend uk if uk is stil one of the world top ten producers of weapons. thank u

Posted by haig kradjian on April 02, 2009 at 10:10 AM BST #

Dear Haig. I am afraid the Blog system classified your comment as spam so I did not get to see it until my return to Geneva this week. I hope you found the Model United Nations a good experience. Both my children have done this programme as students and found it a useful insight in what their father does for a living. For anyone like yourself who finds themselves having to play the UK our position on the ATT is explained on the FCO website. The link is on the side bar of this page. To answer your specific question the ATT is not about stopping the arms trade. Otherwise how would countries who live in the more dangerous parts of the world be able to defend themselves or the nations who provide peacekeepers be able to intervene with properly armed troops. The right to use force to defend oneself is one of the basic rights guaranteed by the UN Charter. So the value or quantity of arms sales is not really the point. The aim of the ATT is to ensure that the arms trade is carried out responsibly so that weapons are not sold when there is a real risk the weapons will be misused, for example to abuse human rights. For the UK we look very carefully at whether there is a risk that our weapons will be misused and if we think there is such a risk we don’t sell them. The UK parliament regularly reviews what sales have been allowed and questions our officials and ministers if they have any doubts about particular sales. That is not to say that we always get it right, particularly when one considers that governments and circumstances on the ground change over time.

Posted by John Duncan on April 14, 2009 at 08:29 PM BST #

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