Last week I met a Chinese organisation called Green Earth Volunteers a long established environmental group.
Hearing what it had to say - and looking at the many photographs its member have taken over the past decade or more – I was struck by two things. First, by the range and depth of some of the physical changes now under way in China as a result of climate change, particularly in and around the sources of the great Yangtze and Yellow rivers; and second, by how global warming is already affecting many rural Chinese communities, in some cases to the extent that people are having to relocate as significant river systems dry up or become less reliable and as groundwater levels fall.
Changes of this sort to landscapes and communities are not in every case caused solely by global warming. In some parts of China climate impacts are amplifying environmental stresses already introduced by human development: climate change is a “threat multiplier”. It has the potential to make many existing problems (for example, the over extraction of river water for irrigation) worse than they might otherwise be.
These and other aspects of climate change will form part of the focus of a recently launched programme of joint China/UK/Swiss research called Adapting to Climate Change in China. Building on some eight years of co-operation between the UK and China in this area, the programme will develop better climate models for China (particularly in relation to issues like extreme weather events, and the Asian typhoon system) and a better understanding of climate impacts and how to adapt to them. It is a fine example of how countries can collaborate in the field of climate change and I shall return to it in future blogs.
For now though we shouldn’t forget that on present emissions trends, the impacts of global warming are likely to outstrip even our best efforts to adapt. The average global temperature has so far risen by around 0.8 degrees celsius above its level in pre-industrial times. Science tells us it is likely to rise to around 4 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at our present rate. If the warming we are experiencing today has the power to melt ancient glaciers, dry out river systems and challenge the very existence of rural communities then it is safe to assume that life in a “4 degrees” world would be no fun at all.
Indeed a powerful glimpse of the likely horrors of such a world is provided by a study released this week by scientists from the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre. The study has produced a map showing how an average 4 degrees rise in global temperature would affect different parts of the world. In such a world, we could expect severe droughts, crop failures and powerful cyclones to become the norm (check out the predicted effects on China by viewing the interactive map).
Against this picture, the alternative path - achieving a fair and effective international deal in Copenhagen to reduce global emissions – looks by far the better option.
Posted at 14:16 26 October 2009 by David Concar | Comments[0]
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