James Barbour

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Friday 16 October, 2009

Blog Action Day: Russia and Climate Change

One particular story caught my eye on the BBC website this morning.

It's a story which comes around every so often, but more so of late: the Arctic ice is melting, and in fairly short order the Arctic Ocean will be sufficiently clear, at least in the Summer months, to dramatically shorten shipping times from Asia to Europe. Another ten years or so, and the shipping lanes to the North of Russia could be bustling with fleets of ocean greyhounds, while the Northern ports enjoy a renaissance as new trading and refuelling hubs.

Which sounds great, of course. And it's one of the many arguments often deployed here to counter the inevitability of climate change: Surely, if the world were a few degrees warmer, Russia would benefit?

Well, no. There's a down-side for Russia, too.

Much of Arctic Russia is made up of permafrost - continuously frozen soil, rich in organic matter. But it's melting, and that brings two problems. First, as this Reuters piece explains, melting permafrost releases methane, itself a powerful "greenhouse gas". And second, while frozen soil is fairly solid, melting permafrost turns into a boggy marsh. Not so good if it's supporting towns, roads, energy installations and railways. A statistic I heard last week tells that around 5,000km of railway track are at risk if Russia's permafrost melts.

Further south, the fertile soils of the Volga basin - where, apparently, the right farming methods could close the world's hunger gap - are equally under threat. So is the ecosystem of lake Baikal, the world's largest freshwater lake. Cases of malaria across Russia have skyrocketed in recent years, with mosquitos venturing far further North than ever before. And the beautiful city of St Petersburg, where I learned Russian, is threatened by rising sea levels.

I'm simplifying hugely, of course. But the message is clear: Russia has more to lose than gain from climate change. Thankfully, Russia is also in a powerful position to sign up to ambitious targets at Copenhagen, and stick to them.

For more here's Ed Miliband, in Russia last week to talk to the government about why climate change matters.