A breeze so hot that it feels solid and the sweet smell of aviation fuel will  be my last impression of Khartoum when I leave next week. Leaving is never easy. But for a diplomat it is a part of life. For many others in Sudan the experience is traumatic.

As I write Southern Sudanese have become foreigners in what used to be their own land. Nine months after Southern secession on 9 July 2011, I have the luxury of feeling sweet sorrow at parting. Tens or hundreds of thousands of Southerners have no such luxury. Difficult choices, a hard road and an uncertain feature are the fate of many who are told they are Sudanese no more.

I believe few in Khartoum share the extreme and hate-inspiring views expressed in one of the daily newspapers here – certainly not those I have the pleasure to meet and work with. For them Sudanese hospitality is shown not only when people arrive, it continues to the moment they leave.

In the Embassy our Sudanese colleagues organised a party last week for their departing Southern colleagues. This kind of event has happened all over Sudan. Warm words mix with a certain shared disbelief – can this really be happening? Fortunately Sudan’s national insurance system is robust and dispassionate. It is an exemplar to many developing countries: it has repaid in full to all our departing Embassy colleagues their years of contributions. So those going south have at least something to use to start their new lives.

During just less than two years in Khartoum, my life and work has been dominated by change: the referendum in January 2011, independence in July and the wrangling and conflict that has ensued; revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Syria and their possible impact in Sudan; the downward turn in Sudan’s economy and the effects on ordinary people; the change of Sudan’s government that shifted – or not – the kaleidoscope.

In a time of change, consistency matters. I have tried my best to communicate how the UK Government sees things in Sudan and what our policy is. Some have criticised my openness. But others have welcomed it. As I often explain, foreign policy is not the possession of a privileged few. In the twenty first century relations between countries are so much more than what happens in closed rooms between officials and diplomats. Some business does require confidentiality and discretion. But most doesn’t. Ask me what the UK is trying to do in Sudan and I will tell you: build peace and reduce poverty.

Our Ministers have been very clear about the hallmarks of UK engagement here – it is long-term, and growing rather than reducing; it is scrupulously even-handed when it comes to Sudan and South Sudan (we want both to be stable and viable states), it is founded on the principle of a supporting partnership (we want to work with and through Sudanese institutions as much as possible), and it is focused on the need to change now in order to be ready for the future.

Huge economic, social and political challenges are coming down the track. The future has already started. Sudan is young, urban and under-employed in a way it wasn’t a few years ago. That trend is growing not reducing. History and current events across the region show that the way to cope with such challenge is to empower the people – economically and politically. Fully accountable and representative government, the rule of law and an attractive trade and investment climate are proven to work.

Our Embassy’s work focuses on the future – the next generation and the next elections (see our website UK in Sudan for more details of our projects and programmes). But we also engage on the here and now, supporting President Mbeki’s relentless search for peace in the region, helping  the Government of Sudan and Professor Gambari to heal Darfur’s wounds and encouraging economic reform and growth to give people jobs (the last available figures show UK-Sudan trade increased 20% in 2010; investment is also starting -on Sunday I attended the opening of a new pharmaceutical factory owned by a UK PLC).

Departing Ambassadors are frequently asked if they are optimistic. I always say I am – Sudan has so much in its favour that I am sure in years to come it will play the full and positive role it should as Africa’s third largest nation, blessed with natural and human resources, rich in diversity and strong in its unique Afro-Arab identity. But always as I say this, my heart is in my mouth. This will be the future, I am sure. But what lies between here and there? My fear is that change may come to Sudan messily, violently and in a way that destabilises the country and region. It does not need to be that way. Managed change can still succeed.

But it needs to start now. It is for Sudan’s leaders and people to determine their future. My parting wish is that they choose to open genuine political space and dialogue, to harness talent and not repress dissent, to be strong as a country, but not brutal. And where there is war, as in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State, the real aim should be to end it – not win it.

Since writing this, South Sudanese forces have occupied Heglig. The AU has called for immediate and unconditional withdrawal. The UK has added its voice to that call. Dark days. Once again restraint and leadership is needed. I urge both Presidents to listen to President Thabo Mbeki. Let the African Union lead them to stability and peace.

My thanks to the Sudanese for their gracious hospitality. Ma’a salama.

“Think big; start small; act now” resonated with me and I think all the audience at the Academy of Health Sciences in Omdurman last Saturday. Professor Hassan Bella used the phrase to describe the philosophy of Mabel Wolff, who founded Sudan’s midwifery training school in 1921. The occasion was the unveiling of a plaque donated by this eminent professor to remember the work of the founders of modern midwifery in Sudan – Mabel and her sister Gertrude and their two Sudanese colleagues, Batoul M Eisa and Guindia Salih. But more than anything it was an opportunity to look ahead to the challenges of providing health care throughout Sudan. The Academy estimates a deficit of 95,000 nurses, midwives and allied professions across Sudan’s 17 states.

Saturday’s event was timely because I had just said goodbye to Stephen O’Brien, the UK Minister with responsibility for our development cooperation with Sub-Saharan Africa. While here, he had launched DFID’s Operational Plan which sets out how we will deliver concrete benefits for the Sudanese people over the next 3-4 years, including an additional 800,000 people gaining access to clean drinking water and 3 million people reached by health and nutrition-related programmes. In the Embassy he had an initial discussion with our team about how the UK could help Sudan to tackle the problem of the 80% or more of young women who undergo genital mutilation. Sudanese health workers and the Government are determined to eliminate this practice by 2018. To do that I suspect we can all go back to the future and learn from the success of the midwifery training launched over 90 years ago.

Mr O’Brien also visited Darfur, where he saw how the UK is able to help the people of Darfur move from dependence on humanitarian support to longer term development. The Golo Reservoir outside El Fasher is being repaired and re-connected to the town’s water supply. It is a beautiful place. In an arid landscape, the reservoir is the only permanent surface water in the whole of Darfur. The mahogany trees which ring it were planted in 1947 when the reservoir was completed. Today they are huge and give luxuriant shade. As we were leaving we met a 96 year old farmer, who remembered watering the saplings as a young man.

Security in some parts of Darfur remains a major concern. Since our visit another aid worker has been kidnapped. The day we were there another UNAMID peace-keeper was tragically killed and more civilians fled recent fighting to arrive in El Fasher. But there is hope in the air. The Darfur Regional Authority is establishing itself. Some of the commitments of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur are being honoured. And at least some of the IDPs we met are beginning to think seriously of their future – either returning to their homes and lands or deciding to embark on a new life in El Fasher and other towns. Many will choose the latter and one of their main needs will be clean water. The UK together with State water authorities and UNOPS have anticipated that need. We hope to help Darfuris enjoy a better future. This was my third visit to El Fasher this year. While news headlines no longer focus on Darfur, the UK has not forgotten it.

Darfur provides a glimmer of hope in what is otherwise an increasingly troubled scene. I am shortly packing my suitcases for some leave after five months of fairly intense activity. It is with some trepidation that I go. March seems likely to be a difficult month for Sudan. Conflict is raging in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State and the tensions between South Sudan and Sudan risk erupting into an even larger-scale conflict. Our Foreign Secretary  and many others have urged calm  We remain adamantly even-handed: both countries should take measures to de-escalate the confrontation. Both should refrain from supporting proxies in the other’s territory. Both should allow full humanitarian access to civilians in need, wherever they are. Both should engage in a political process mediated by President Thabo Mbeki. These are not demands being made by interfering “Western” powers. These are the demands of the UN, the African Union, the League of Arab States and, above all, of the people of Sudan.

The future hangs in the balance. It is not too late for leaders to choose to build two countries at peace with each other and each working hard and collaboratively to meet the needs of their people for jobs, schools and clinics. Until the very end, the UK will work through our political, development and defence relations to encourage that vision. But time is short. The noise of war is rising. My wish is that it does not drown out the voices of the millions of Sudanese and South Sudanese who crave peace. One day they will have not just voices, but votes.

Colourful banners and tents spread as far as the eye could see on the ground beside the Mahdi’s tomb. This could have been a scene from a 19^th century gathering during the Khalifate. Instead it was the annual Sufi celebration in Omdurman of the birth of the Prophet Mohammed (PBUH) – a week of religious devotion, intellectual exchange and promotion of peace. But this year that was not to be.

30 January was a momentous night in Khartoum for both good and bad reasons. On Monday night I was due to join Sufi Sheikh Qaribullah in his tent to take part in an event to raise awareness of climate change and the environment. Instead I had to stay at home. Violence had erupted between Salafist and Sufi followers in Omdurman. Tents had been burned down. Tear gas fired. Many Sudanese have been shocked by this: respect for religious diversity and tolerance run deep in Sudanese veins. Spilling blood in sectarian aggression has no part in Sudanese life.

Mahdis Tomb

On a more positive note, the same night Sudan had a famous victory in the African Cup of Nations. For the first time in 42 years, they won a match. All of that with a home-grown team. As one BBC reporter said, it’s nice to have a good news story from Sudan. I wish Sudan all the best for the rest of the competition.

Sudanese morale needs a boost amid gathering clouds. Once again Sudan has climbed close to the top of the world news agenda. The UN Secretary General has warned of a risk to regional peace and security and Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, among others is pointing to a looming humanitarian crisis.  

We have all struggled to understand the logic behind the dispute over oil between Sudan and South Sudan. Emotions are hard to rise above. Leaders seem trapped by the mistaken fear that “if one wins, the other must lose”.  Trust is proving elusive, despite the remarkable community of nations urging both sides – in their own interests – to compromise and avoid rash moves. The UK was one of many who worked hard in private and public to support African efforts to build bridges between the two Sudans. The tireless efforts of ex-Presidents Mbeki and Buyoya, of PM Meles Zenawi and of President Kibaki merit recognition and gratitude.

Statesmanship will be needed to  resolve the oil crisis, but lawyer-diplomats will also have a role. As the talks were going on in Addis, I attended an event hosted in Khartoum by the MFA, where a distinguished former Sudanese diplomat and lawyer reminded me of an important – and amusing – truth: there are two types of lawyer-diplomat – one who finds solutions to every problem and one who finds problems to every solution.

The event at the Diplomatic Club was in the cool of the Khartoum evening, charmingly hosted by the Under-Secretary and in its way a small piece of history. It was to launch the first ever MFA calendar containing 12 prints donated by Sudan’s leading contemporary artists. As HE Rahmatullah Osman Mohamed said, it was about time Sudan showed a different face to the world. A land of culture, ethnic and religious diversity:  Sudan has an ancient civilisation which deserves to be better promoted.

So life goes on in the Khartoum bubble – diplomatic receptions, the International Trade Fair in full swing, new hospitals (private) open, weddings abound, construction continues to boom. But I feel an increasing sense of unreality. Is this a city that is going through the motions – elegant, poised, with good heart, but where something fundamental is missing? I can’t quite grasp what it is, but images of discord rather than harmony come to mind. It’s as if the orchestra is bickering amongst itself, the singers are each on a different verse and the dancers don’t know whose tune to follow. Meanwhile thieves among the audience pick pockets and the ushers beat up people when they think no one is looking.

Beyond this tragi-comedy lies another world – one where people face enormous daily challenges. A young man dies penniless and far from home. Neighbours and strangers rally round. A funeral is arranged and paid for. Distant relatives get to Khartoum. Children are comforted. Arrangements made. Life goes on. The dead man is from South Sudan; the neighbours from the north. At street and village level, the social fabric seems strong. The daily struggle to provide food, transport, schooling and health care for loved ones unites people.

Little unity is visible among the intellectual elite of the country. A series of anonymous memos from different groups has attracted attention. Fundamental debate on the nature of the state, its political culture and constitution is emerging – timidly. As a foreign diplomat I try to make sense of it all. Words – and therefore memos – matter in a profession like mine. Every diplomat believes it’s better to settle disputes with paper and pen and debate than by violence.

However hard I try to focus on the present and the future, I get ambushed by the past – sometimes when I least expect it. Over the holiday period, my family called on the head of a distinguished family in Dongola, whose niece works in our Embassy. Other than the overwhelming hospitality, it was also a crash course in UK-Sudanese relations. My host’s father, grand-father and great-grandfather had attended the last three coronations of British monarchs in London. Our country and family histories had been intertwined since the 19^th century.

2012 will be historic for the UK: we celebrate HM the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee (sixty years on the throne) and we host the Olympic Games. At a press conference last week I launched the British Embassy and British Council’s special programme to mark 2012: for each of the twelve months of the year around the twelfth day of the month we shall be holding an event to celebrate UK and Sudan relations.

On 12 January our first 2012 event was the opening of a three-month British Council English course for 150 Sudanese journalists, which will culminate in March with a two week course in modern media for the twenty top students. Freedom of speech, and responsible and free media are cornerstones of any democracy. As 2012 begins in Sudan, it is regrettable that pressures on journalists and on those exercising their right to speak are again making the news.

I wrote in my last blog of the lively political debate filling the cloisters and halls of the University of Khartoum. Two weeks later silence reigns. I am told classes have been suspended indefinitely and there have been some arrests. At the same time President Bashir has just appointed a new Human Rights Commission. I wish the Commission well and share the hope of many Sudanese that it will help to embed a culture of respect for all the freedoms enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, to which the UK and Sudan are both committed since 1948.

I am no expert in Sudanese history, but 1948 was a landmark year for what happened here (as well as in New York). The first partially elected Legislative Assembly was created – charting the path to independence eight years later. And in 1948 the Trade Union Ordinance gave legal recognition to trade unions, which grew in strength over the years and played a key role in the overthrow of military rule in 1964.

Sometimes the issues we consider to be contemporary have striking parallels in the past. Over the holiday period I was reading  Sir Winston Churchill’s the River War first published in 1899. I would not subscribe by any means to all his views, but even as a young military officer, he showed some of the acuteness of judgement and moral conviction which were to prove so valuable later in life. If you have time, his commentary on the shortcomings of military rule (Chapter III) provides some food for thought even in 2012.    http://www.gutenberg.org/catalog/world/readfile?fk_files=1457629&pageno=41

Another year. Another miracle.

Twelve months ago we were pleasantly surprised by a small miracle – the Southern referendum was held on time. I recall Professor Mohammed Ibrahim Khalil (Chairman of the Referendum Commission) saying that while it would be a miracle if it happened, miracles do sometimes happen. Now as 2011 turns into 2012, I keep being struck by another miracle – Sudan’s economy.

Whether you look at the micro or macro level, Sudan appears to be performing an economic miracle. At the micro level, millions of people in Khartoum earn considerably less than 1000 SDG (ie £200 sterling) per month. If you do the sums from the start of the day to the end of the day, it seems impossible that they survive – getting up in the morning, having tea (with sugar at the price it is), transport to work and school, some bread and basic foodstuffs, perhaps some medicine. The ends shouldn’t meet on the money available. But they seem to – something extra must be coming into households, presumably from friends and families abroad or in Sudan.  This informal social safety-net is working, but must be stretching thin. At a macro level, the same miracle is happening – deprived of any revenue from oil transported from South Sudan since July and with extra expenditure on conflicts in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, it seems those in charge of Sudan’s finances are defying gravity.  It’s a high-wire act. Balance matters. I noted with interest the National Assembly’s vote against cutting subsidies on fuel. Balancing the interests of the poor while reducing government expenditure is never easy – as indeed the economic situation in Europe illustrates.

But, as economic belts are tightened, to the casual observer life seems pretty unchanged in Khartoum. The construction boom of the last few years seems unabated: private houses and public buildings continue to take shape everywhere, quite literally in the case of the Navy and Air Force buildings that are now clearly visible in the shapes of a model ship and aeroplane – two rather concrete miracles.

I have had plenty of chances to observe the Khartoum skyline recently as I travel around town. Events have proliferated as everyone takes advantage of Sudan’s spring – fresh mornings, crystal-blue midday skies and evenings rich with jasmine and frangipani. There is perhaps no more beautiful place to enjoy this than at the University of Khartoum, where European diplomats gathered recently in the Faculty of Law to mark International Human Rights Day. It is a beautiful campus: mellowed stone arches, cloisters, shady gardens and everywhere the buzz of young people, brightly dressed in tobes, jellabiyas, jeans or suits, revising for exams, chatting or discussing the issues of the day. For a British Ambassador visiting the University evokes a strong sense of past and present. As Gordon Memorial College, it figured centre-stage in the UK and Sudan’s shared history. It has, I am delighted to say, a growing number of academic partnerships with UK universities. Just last week a 20-strong delegation from the University of Reading was here. I hope further ties will follow.

In Khartoum the past and the present are tied inextricably. The Dean of the Law Faculty showed me his office and the photos of previous Deans: the first Dean after the College became a fully-fledged University more than 50 years ago was Professor Khalil; the second Dr Hassan al Turabi. The University has fed Sudan’s rich political life over the decades. Many who watched a recent YouTube video of an angry recent graduate addressing a leading politician clearly saw that politics are still alive and well within the University precincts.

Elsewhere I have also been struck by the vibrancy of Khartoum life. One of the privileges of an Ambassador is the chance to get a glimpse into myriad different lives. My last week’s kaleidoscope included an uplifting morning at an Omdurman primary school, spent in the company of the Sufi leader Sheikh Mohammed Hassan Qaribulla and several hundred children from eleven different schools. Together we learnt and taught about the importance of protecting the environment and planted the first of three thousand trees which the young children of Omdurman will be nurturing, as a part of an Embassy and British Council project. Another evening I spent with women and children survivors of sexual violence and other human rights violations, who are working together with young Sudanese artists to raise awareness of the importance of diversity and human rights in modern Sudan. The passion of the art and the strength of the women survivors show what can be achieved when hearts, policies and resources are aligned. Again this was a small Embassy-funded project.

There have been so many cameos in the last week capturing current UK-Sudan relations: a large event for the Sudan Medical Association (UK and Eire Branch) bringing health professionals together; several discussions on the Constitution where I benefited from the wisdom of Sudanese elders who know better than me the UK’s unwritten constitution; and calls on the two new Assistants to the President in the Presidential Palace (built by Kitchener in 1899). I discussed with one of them how his great-great grandfather had not wanted General Gordon to be killed. But our talks did not dwell on the past. Instead we focused on the needs of the hour: how to end the fighting in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile States, help those who are suffering from the conflict, and support sustainable and responsible relations between South Sudan and Sudan. Colleagues in London discussed the same issues with Presidential Adviser Dr Ghazi Salahuddin during his visit to the UK last week.  He arrived just after a major debate in Parliament on Sudan, which I commend to those who wish to see the level of informed interest among British MPs and the comprehensive statement of UK policy on Sudan made by our Minister for Africa, Henry Bellingham.

Mr Bellingham made abundantly clear the UK’s commitment to a long-term and even-handed relationship with both Sudan and South Sudan, which includes a significant development and humanitarian programme, technical support for debt relief, and active work to resolve outstanding conflicts and issues be it through the work of the AU or UN missions. He also made clear our grave concerns. As candid friends of both countries we are unable to remain silent when we see either side breaching agreements or international law. When we get it wrong, we equally expect to hear from the Governments in Khartoum and Juba – as indeed I did from the MFA this week ahead of a discussion in New York of the ICC Chief Prosecutor’s report.

British Ambassador views artwork representing diversity in Sudan at an event run by local human rights group SEEMA

So as the year ends, life in Khartoum seems a rich round of politics, human rights, the environment, art, medicine, and academia; all shared with immensely charming and talented Sudanese – old and young. This giddying whirl is both true and deceptive. Behind it we should not ignore another steady and insistent drum-beat, which reminds us that most Sudanese live, struggle and die in a harsher land that lies beyond Khartoum’s charmed circle.  A drum-beat that speaks too of economic challenges to come. I wish all readers a happy, peaceful and, let us hope, prosperous 2012.

British Ambassador speaks to human rights activists at the SEEMA event to promote diversity and human rights

A sea of green is not what I expected. Sorghum and cotton as far as the eye could see. I was in the Tokar Delta in Red Sea State with EU Ambassadors last month seeing for ourselves the impact of EU funding. 250,000 feddans (100,000 hectares) of farmland is now back in production – almost double what there was two years ago. But still only 75% of what Tokar produced at its peak.

Others more expert than me can explain the successes and failures of the Tokar Delta scheme. But I was left with two feelings – hope (the sight of food growing on such a scale is uplifting) and worry (the people of Tokar are still poor and their number is growing rapidly). I suspect one part of the answer is to break out of a cycle of subsistence farming by creating added value (e.g. processing tomatoes into paste) and by somehow getting goods to an export market (Saudi Arabia is just across the sea and connected by daily sailings from Suakin). I know the Governor of Red Sea State, who generously hosted us, is pursuing all options. The EU is working closely with him as are many other international partners, including from the Arab world.

Only when you get out and about in Sudan can you really begin to appreciate its challenges and potential. Our Embassy team is trying to do this as much as possible. In the last couple of weeks we have had people in Abyei, Gedaref and Kassala. Others will shortly travel (again) to Darfur. After each of these visits, we know more and sometimes understand less. The destruction of Abyei town, where only two buildings have been left intact, is a case in point. We can see the damage, but we struggle to understand why it happened. It reinforces vividly the urgent need to manage the current migration of cattle from the north to the south. For decades or even centuries this has happened by local communities agreeing between themselves. Now Abyei has been politicised, it is the responsibility of politicians to make sure communities can pursue their livelihoods, crops be planted and cattle watered. The UN through the presence of Ethiopian forces in UNISFA is there to help. But they need political will and commitment in Khartoum and Juba.

In Addis Ababa last week political agreement was elusive. Talks between Sudan and South Sudan on transitional financial arrangements and on oil faltered. President Mbeki’s Panel will continue undeterred to try to assist the parties. The UK through our Special Representative, Michael Ryder, will also continue to be on hand as I’m sure will US, Norwegian and other colleagues. Diplomats need to have patience and stamina. Military experts, advisers and Ministers must also have their say. But at the end of the day those who decide whether there is peace and prosperity are the elected Presidents of each country. We continue to urge both sides not to take unilateral actions, respect each other’s territorial integrity and avoid actions and words that could inflame an already combustible situation.

Other than travelling the country and enjoying Sudanese hospitality, we have been busy in Khartoum too. Our annual Chevening Scholarship scheme was launched. Sponsorship this year by Dal Group, Kenana and Zain means we are able once again to double the number of postgraduate scholarships we can offer in 2012-13. We are looking for the brightest and best future Sudanese leaders. Full application details are on our website. I have also enjoyed the European Film Festival over the last week. Several hundred Sudanese and Europeans profited from a remarkably cool evening in the National Museum’s garden to attend the opening night. I wasn’t able to get to the British Council to see the UK film, but I heard it engendered a lively debate about modern day slavery – appropriate as the world marks International Slavery Day on 2  December.

Another date fast approaching is 10 December – International Human Rights Day. British Embassies around the world will be joining their hosts and local partners to commemorate the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 63 years ago. In Sudan among other activities we plan to use social media to engage on the issue of human rights by hosting a question and answer session on our Embassy Facebook page. If you have questions about the UK’s work to support human rights in the world, do email information.khartoum@fco.gov.uk. Please keep an eye on Facebook and the Embassy’s website for more details. I look forward to hearing from people in the four corners of Sudan.

Fried fish, foul, tamiyya, kisra, asida and warm flat bread make a good Friday breakfast. Sitting beside the Blue Nile enjoying Sudanese hospitality on a gentle warm day, it would be easy to think Khartoum was a city without a care in the world. Indeed some of the strains I wrote of in early October have eased a bit – inflation has come down from 20.7% to 19.8%, due in part to a fall in seasonal food prices. And certainly the outside temperature has dropped.

But beneath this surface calm, many Sudanese still seem anxious. That anxiety is not confined to Sudan. Significant change is happening all around. In Europe two EU governments have changed as a result of the economic crisis. “Technocrats” have replaced career politicians. Closer to Sudan, the Arab League has adopted a robust – and welcome – position on Syria . We read that Sudan was itself instrumental in persuading a couple of fellow African countries to join the consensus. Elsewhere in the region, Somalia is becoming the focus of even more international attention. The UK has announced a major conference in London in February in Khartoum, the Government hosted the Somali President last week. Sudan like the UK is a strong backer of the TFG. As in the case of Libya before and Syria now, we find the UK and Sudan more often than not agree on regional issues, including the importance of governments listening to the legitimate demands of their people.

Democracy works that way. So too does demography. Perhaps the biggest change this month has been the world population passing 7 billion. Most of the world’s “high fertility” zones (a UN term) are in sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth focuses minds on the future. If we keep adding a billion people to the planet each generation, how many will there be in five, ten or fifteen years? Sudan’s population and its growth rate is not among the most startling – yet. But one figure stands out for me: 50% of Sudan’s population is said to be under the age of 19 .

I keep thinking of that whenever discussion turns to how the UK and Sudan should work together over the coming years, i.e. the choices that face us over how to conduct our political, development and defence relations between now and 2015. These discussions are not easy. A future perspective often gets blocked by the immediacy and urgency of today’s problems, be they the conflicts in the border area with South Sudan and the resulting humanitarian challenges, the impacts of the loss of oil revenue, the Government reshuffle in Khartoum or the winds of change blowing across the wider region. While all these are important, many are beyond our control. We simply cannot say for sure what the Government in Khartoum will be like in 2015 or what its relations with Juba will be. But we can say with reasonable certainty what the demographics will be like in 2015. From recent studies  and available statistics , the Sudan of 2015 will be predominantly young, urban and struggling to make ends meet. It’s that reality which our policies need to address. Not in four year’s time, but now.

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As ever, if you have comments on what the UK should be doing – and especially if you one of the growing numbers of Sudanese youth following these things on- line – please post a comment below and join the debate. Many thanks.

As Khartoum’s temperature drops, the tempo of life and work picks up in Sudan.

The time of Haj and of Eid al Adha is upon us: a time of reflection and sacrifice. Before the holiday period started, I was busy with our fifth Ministerial visit to Sudan since starting my job here sixteen months ago. Mr O’Brien spent an intensive three days focusing on humanitarian and outstanding north-south issues as well as the role of the private sector as a potential engine for growth. Five Ministerial visits testify to the strength of the UK’s commitment to Sudan and to the strong ties between us.

Those ties have kept me – pleasantly – busy in the last few weeks. The breadth and depth of UK-Sudan links never cease to amaze me. On a recent Saturday together with 4000 people I attended a marvellous concert at the National Theatre, where a young English folk band (Sam Lee and the Gillie Boys) played with three stars of Sudanese music (Dr Al Fatih Hussein, Omer Ihsas and Dr Manal). It was a unique evening of musical collaboration and cultural harmony.  I am proud the British Council was able to help the Minister of Culture in re-starting this long-standing international music festival. Later in the week I entertained a visit by the Academy of Royal Colleges, including two eminent Sudanese doctors based in the UK. Part of their mission was to take forward a Memorandum of Understanding with the Ministry of Health to develop cooperation in public health management, emergency medicine and family health.

Not all my time has been spent on music and medical cooperation. With Special Envoys of several countries I spent two days in Western Darfur, where some precarious stability is returning but people continue to suffer displacement as a result of insecurity and fighting. With Mr O’Brien I also travelled this week to White Nile State to see the impressive sugar factories at Kenana and the new White Nile factory. We also saw the hardship faced by thousands of southern Sudanese as they relocate to South Sudan via Kosti. Mr O’Brien expressed the need for both governments to do everything possible to ease the plight of these people.

In Khartoum, amid economic challenges and an impending Government re-shuffle, I have continued to call on Ministers, senior NCP officials and central bankers: one or two of whom have dual UK-Sudanese nationality and nearly all of whom have studied at UK universities. UK-Sudan educational links are rich. At the Ministry of Education I discussed progress on implementing a pilot programme with the British Council for training 900 teachers of English in Khartoum. Our Minister for Africa, Henry Bellingham, had launched this cooperation with Minister of State Suad Abdel Razig when he visited in July. He was the first Minister from any country to come to Khartoum after secession.

Given the strength of our ties and of bilateral relations, I was concerned to see that my last blog had led to news headlines and complaints from several sources. As I have said before, it is not my intention or my Government’s intention to have a public falling out.  The strength and depth of our relations should mean that we respect each other’s right to hold and express our views. On many issues we agree; on some we don’t. That seems to me entirely normal. We have known each other so long and so well that we should neither be surprised nor take umbrage if on occasion we do not see eye to eye.

Khartoum is starting to empty. The feeling is of approaching festivity blended with customary  uncertainty  – will Eid be tomorrow, the next day, or the day after? A question that matters to those who haven’t yet received salaries for the month of August! Everyone needs their pay if they are to depart to the four corners of Sudan with gifts, clothes and sweets for probably the biggest family celebration of the year.

Before the family party begins in earnest, there are formal Eid calls in Khartoum. From the President down, political leaders open their doors for people to come and greet them. I attended some last year and will again this year. They feel like very Sudanese occasions: an open door and a sociability that goes beyond pure politeness. Like all the diplomatic corps, I shall rush from one to another. Then, unlike everyone, I go on my mid-tour leave. A long Eid for me – I shall be away until October.

This seems a good moment to take stock. Each day contains twists and turns which need to be navigated. Focusing on the road ahead, you lose sight of the landscape around and the road just travelled. What is clear is that after 9 July, we are in a very different landscape and, for the moment, we are still a little lost. Gone are the familiar landmarks of the CPA – the milestones that had to be passed, such as a new constitution, elections, registration for the referendum, the referendum itself and finally secession. Gone too are some of the bodies through which diplomats played a role – UNMIS and the AEC. The AU High Level Implementation Panel has been absent too for the summer.

In September, the new term will start and busy-ness will break out again. Envoys will fly to different places. Meetings will happen. New agreements will be made. Old ones revised. All necessary. But my nagging worry is whether it is sufficient. Perhaps I like things to be simple, but I do feel in need of a sense of direction. I don’t know where Sudan is heading or rather where its leaders are trying to take it. In my last blog I commented about some current concerns, especially Southern Kordofan. Since then the UK Government has welcomed the unilateral ceasefire declared by President Bashir [link]. But within just a couple of days we received reports of violations of that ceasefire – reports which are difficult to corroborate because UN agencies and diplomats are not allowed to visit the area. My thought on Southern Kordofan is simple: if you have nothing to hide, then don’t hide it.

But suspicion runs deep. And again I am left struggling to understand. In a country where four out of the fifteen states suffer from ongoing conflict, where thousands of people have left their homes and livelihoods because of insecurity, it seems patently obvious that help is needed. And not just food and medicine. But political help. I have worked within the international community in other troubled places, such as DRC and Afghanistan. I know we and the UN are not infallible: we make mistakes and we suffer from conceit. But I also know that we are not hostile. The UK, like its partners in the UN Security Council, is committed to respecting Sudan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. We are committed to helping to build stability, peace and prosperity in Sudan.

To fear a hidden “regime change” agenda speaks of self-doubt, not of well-grounded analysis. I fail to understand why the new Republic of Sudan, which craves and needs international respect and respectability, does not open its doors. It should flood Southern Kordofan with UN agencies, observers and if necessary peacekeepers. It should embrace its wise African friends who offer to mediate political solutions to problems that have no military answer. A spirit of cooperation needs to replace the climate of suspicion. Peace-keeping is something done with a country not to a country.

But Southern Kordofan is a difficult stretch of road. It is not the destination. Sudan faces wider questions and bigger challenges. Change is written into the script – the interim constitution must be adapted to become a permanent constitution and the President has repeatedly spoken of forming a broad-based government. Where will such changes lead Sudan? Is it destined to be a state that creates wealth for all its citizens, and where all people feel they have a voice, enjoy access to justice and have the means to choose and change governments through free and fair elections? As people journey home for Eid, perhaps these will not be the questions most in their minds. But as I tour the political salons making Eid calls, I’m hoping there will be signs of where the country’s political leaders intend to take the Second Republic. Like last year, I shall also be curious to see whether there is a new generation in each Party getting ready for the road ahead.

Finally, may I thank all who have commented on my previous blogs either on-line, in the media or in person? Today Ambassadors all over the world are using technology to reach more people than ever before. The means may be new, but the aims are old. Ambassadors are communicators – they represent their state’s views abroad, they try to influence another state’s opinions and actions in support of their objectives and they interpret back to their Government what is happening in the country to which they are accredited. Some of that is rightly done in private, but increasingly diplomacy is a public activity. Getting the balance right is never easy.

I wish all readers “Eid Mubarak”!