24th February 2015
The case for NATO
Last week I got back from NATO Headquarters in Brussels. In January, the UK took over from Turkey as the lead NATO Embassy here in Sarajevo, so I went to learn about NATO’s priorities and challenges in our fast-changing and increasingly complex world.
There’s a lot on NATO’s plate as it configures itself to respond to an aggressive and expansionist Russia in the east, and to the threat from Islamic extremism in the south. But one thing that struck me is that NATO still has time for the Balkans.
There’s an awful lot of goodwill towards this region, and everyone wants to see Bosnia and Herzegovina and its neighbours inside the Alliance. NATO views this region, and its enduring stability, as unfinished business. And it’s not hard to see why. Look at the map. There are NATO Allies to the north, south, east and west. But there is a hole in the heart of Europe. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a European country, and it belongs in the European alliance.
I know that not everyone in this country is yet fully convinced about joining NATO. Yes, there is history. But if you are prepared to look to the future rather than to the past, then the case for NATO is simple and compelling. I see it like this:
- NATO = Security. NATO is the most powerful and most successful Alliance in the history of the world. It is the ultimate guarantee of a country’s security. When they join NATO, nations make a solemn pledge that an attack on one ally will be treated as an attack on them all, and that they will come to the aid of their ally with all necessary means. NATO means that borders are inviolable, and for a country with a history like that of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that is a guarantee worth having.
- Security = Stability. Once a country has guaranteed its future security through NATO, it can focus on its long-term political and economic stability without having to worry about what goes on outside its borders. And we saw last year in the floods the role that your Armed Forces can already play in helping to deal with domestic crises. NATO can offer expertise to make them even better so that they can act as a modern and effective force for stability.
- Stability = Prosperity. Investors want stability. For many years, BiH has projected an image to the outside world of being unstable and divided. There would be no better signal towards potential investors in this country than progress along the path towards NATO and the EU.
Elsewhere in the region, Croatia, Slovenia and Albania are already NATO Allies. But other countries are also moving closer to NATO, including those which, like parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have experienced NATO bombing in the past 20 years. Montenegro is close to joining the Alliance. And cooperation between Serbia and NATO is also growing. The Serbian Defence Minister attended last year’s NATO Summit in Wales, and in January Serbia agreed an Individual Partnership Action Plan – the first formal step on the path towards membership of the Alliance.
Just as with the EU, Bosnia and Herzegovina risks being left behind by its neighbours. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Progress could come very quickly. The governing coalitions at the State and Federation levels have already agreed finally to implement the ruling of the Constitutional Court and to carry out the formal registration of defence property to the State. If that happens, then BiH would get in return a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) – the next step towards full membership of the Alliance. MAP doesn’t guarantee future membership, on either side, but it would be a fantastic signal that the country is moving forwards after years of stagnation. And there would be other benefits too. Property which is not needed by the Armed Forces could finally be sold off to generate much-needed money that could be used to improve schools, hospitals and roads.
Over the coming months, I’ll be making this case for NATO around the country. [Look out for me in Bijeljina in April.] But I would love to think that the new energy and momentum that we have succeeded in generating around the EU accession process could also help to unblock progress towards NATO. Then Bosnia and Herzegovina would be firmly on a path towards more security, stability and prosperity, for the benefit of all its citizens.
Banja Luka = Belgrade = Moscow
Your Excellency Mr. Ferguson,
Serb member of Bosnian presidency Mladen Ivanić has made a statement for Serbian daily newspaper “Politika” yesterday on 13.04.2015. claiming that Bosnia will not enter NATO unless Serbia does it first.
Mladen Ivanić is so called moderate Serb politician in Bosnia, and he openly tells us all that NATO membership of Bosnia will wait approval and blessing of Belgrade and Moscow. What do people like you make out of it ?
Less than 30 % of citizens of Bosnia dictate our life. Is this democracy ? is this peace ?
Only solution to Serb political terrorism in Bosnia is military one. Only way Belgrade and Moscow can be stopped is by military force like in Croatia.
Democracy is only way !
Countries like U.K. will have to one day choose between Sarajevo and Moscow.
Sooner – the better.
Banja Luka = Belgrade = Moscow
Your Excellency Mr. Ferguson,
I think that if you thought that I was looking for supporter in you – you are gravely mistaken. Foreign diplomats as well as other foreign representatives in Sarajevo often overestimate their importance. Reasons are numerous, not flattering, but this is no issue now.
Comments on this blog are mere opportunity for me, as well as other people to express their political opinion, pretty representative opinion, far from corrupt political elite both of foreign as well as of local origin.
Unlike Belfast Agreement that was certified by people on referendum, Dayton Peace Accord was never democratically certified by people on referendum, is therefore legally null and void and is generally not widely recognized by majority of Bosnian people, even more so since it has imposed unwanted constitution on us.
Only communist and Nazi dictatorships impose constitution on someone (and Dayton !)
Dayton Peace Accord is at best private deal between certain countries and few members of local corrupt political “elite”. If Bosnia does not become member of EU and NATO thanks to this private and imposed agreement – consequences will be severe. People of this country will not wait forever – as seen in February 2014.
When you Mr. Ferguson start living under similar arrangement in U.K. you can feel free to give us lessons on it. Until then … Please.
Constituent people is a non-existent legal category invented by Yugoslav Bolshevik Communist party in 2nd WW. Neither Anglo-Saxon law nor ours know it as such. Why is ambassador of democratic and free-market based economy (UK) using such communist legal nonsense is nonsense in itself. Croatia has rescinded “constituency” of Serbs in 1991 without any legal consequences what-so-ever, since this bolshevik invention is in conflict with every democratic standard there is in this world.
If Bosnia has waited that 30 % Serb minority agrees with its independence – there would be no Bosnia. Why did not Churchill sought agreement with Hitler ? You recommend remedies that you would never use on yourself. So again… Please.
When Bosnia becomes normal country like Serbia, Croatia or para-state “Republic” of Srpska – and democratic principle of majority rule prevails, reconciliation and persuasion will be logical step ahead. But not now, and not under yours or Serbian terms. Not under terms imposed by weapons.
Domination and bullying is something that your should try talking with Serbia a little bit about. Good address is Milorad Dodik and RS too, but not afflicted Bosniaks from Sarajevo or elsewhere where we survived. Our mere physical existence is domination and bullying for Serbs (and I see for you too).
Russia and Serbs will never allow Bosnia to become NATO member. Wake up from your dreams…
Your Excellency Mr. Ferguson,
Majority of Bosnian citizens agree with you, but our hands are bound. Our country has 3.8 million people, out of which 0.6 million are citizens of neighboring Croatia (Bosnian Croats). These people are already in EU and NATO, since “their” country Croatia is.
Almost 2 millions of Bosniaks support NATO and EU membership with very few exceptions, and not all Bosnian Serbs disagree with it either. All in all easily 70 to 80 % or more citizens of Bosnia support EU and NATO membership. Let us organize referendum and test us !
“Only” problem is – Dayton Peace Accord from 1995 has abolished democracy as a system and has created Apartheid power-sharing system where less than 25 % of population rules half of the country and dominates politics of the country (RS).
Would you allow that in United Kingdom ?
Not even Northern Ireland knows such tragic political travesty !
@marija
Bosnian Serbs must understand that they are minority in Bosnia and have no right to decide about us all. Territory they currently control belongs to other people too, and is not only theirs.
For majority of Bosnian citizens is alliance with Russia NOT acceptable given poor human rights as well as economic record of that country. Only way Russia and Serbs will have their way in Bosnia is by force – and counter force will be answer.
We do not believe in survival of serb entity in Bosnia no less than you do in destruction of our common homeland Bosnia. We consider serb entity as violent and bizzare creation in our more than 1000 years long history.
His Excellency Mr. Ferguson is not loosing his time, since his mission is in in accordance with wishes and ambitions of majority of our population.
NATO did not bring destruction and suffering upon Serbs in the 90ies. Serbs themselves with their politics have brought it upon themselves ! Milosevic regime has had a choice to stop ethnic cleansing, massacres, bloodshed, and mass rapes. Even choice not to start them at all !
Sincerely yours,
Lord Sarajevo
I’m afraid that if you think you’ve found a supporter in me, you’re mistaken. The UK is a signatory and a guarantor of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which did what it set out to do in stopping the war. I’d be the first to agree that the system of government it has imposed is unwieldy and inefficient, and I do understand and share the frustrations of many people with the slow pace of progress and development, but the system can only be changed by constitutional means – which means, with the agreement of all three constituent peoples. So if you want a change, you need to achieve it through reconciliation and persuasion, not through domination and bullying. And that’s how I believe that the argument for NATO will eventually be won.
Mr. Ferguson, Serbs from Republic of Srpska feel strongly against NATO and NATO membership is particularly out of the question. Further more, Serbs do not believe in united Bosnia and Herzegovina, we consider it to be a fake creation. Please find yourself another, more honourable job, and don’t waste your time lobbying for a lost cause. NATO has brought a lot of destruction and suffering to Serbs in Bosnia and Serbia, and it still does. Cancer rates are enormous, all of my friends have lost someone due to cancer in the last year, father, mother, aunt, uncle.. 15 years have passed, the epidemy is starting,depleted uranium, the NATO has thrown on us, will stay with us for centuries to come. Kindest regards, Marija
Marija, I understand the strength of feeling, but I continue to believe that this country would be more stable, secure and prosperous were you to join NATO.
I’m sorry to hear about your friends, but I have to tell you that there is no scientific evidence for depleted uranium representing any sort of significant health risk. Depleted uranium is only weakly radioactive. Numerous scientific studies have been conducted in response to these sorts of accusations from Bosnia and Herzegovina and from other parts of the world. The Royal Society has stated “under all likely exposure scenarios the extra lifetime risks of fatal leukemia are predicted to be too small to be observable”; the International Energy Authority has concluded “there is no evidence that depleted uranium has been carcinogenic in humans”; and the United Nations Environment Programme, having conducted a survey in 2003 examining every location in BiH at which depleted uranium ammunition was used, concluded that the levels found at those sites of strikes that used depleted uranium were so low as to be no cause for alarm.