12th May 2013 Harare, Zimbabwe
Helmand – will it spiral back into violent extremism?
I’m back from Helmand for a couple of weeks for some R&R, to attend the FCO leadership conference, and to do a ground-truthing session at NATO in Brussels. As always, I’m spending plenty of time persuading friends, colleagues, and anyone who will listen, that: no, it isn’t all going fall to pieces after 2014.
Progress in Helmand has been pretty remarkable. Take education – the system was totally broken in 2007 with no girls in school at all. Now we have 130,000 kids enrolled, 30,000 of whom are girls. Security is no longer the number one concern for people in Helmand, it is education and jobs.
Demand for services is high with the focus now on improving quality. The foundation for success has been a rebuilding of the social contract between government and people – a contract which was broken during years of warlords and the Taliban. Life for the average Helmand citizen has improved in countless ways.
Carter Malkasian was the District Transition Advisor for Helmand PRT in Garmser for two years, he offers thoughtful comments on progress in this interview:
“Today’s government has brought schools and healthcare and just a little freedom for women. I do not think most Pashtuns want to see the Taliban return to power. Nor do I think most Pashtuns see the Taliban as hated enemies. I think that they would prefer peaceful reconciliation to years of war.”
Locking in the gains
If people trust their government they will support it – and this, rather than external support, will be the stoutest defence against the threat of relapse into extremism. With this in mind the focus of my team in Helmand has been on boosting the legitimacy of government in the eyes of the people.
Our presence is now very much in the background. We have helped this along in two ways: local budgets and local democracy. UK and Denmark have provided $8.5 million to the Ministry of Finance to channel to local government. The local budgeting process itself, which includes citizens in the prioritisation process, has been instrumental in reconnecting people with the government.
Helmand is now the only province with elected local councils build on the local shura model. These councils are the voice of the people and play a key role in holding the executive to account in delivery of basic services. A recent election in Nawa district saw 5,500 people register to vote up from only 500 in the first election 3 years ago. The combination of delegated budgets and democratic reform is steadily creating government that Helmand’s people believe in.
Risks
As we approach 2014 and accelerate our own draw down, we have to be candid about the risks. Our job is to mitigate them to the extent possible, not to be in denial. Many are concerned that the Taliban are poised to retake many districts as NATO troops pull back.
The start of the so called ‘fighting season’ to coincide with “Mujahedeen day” on 28 April is a stark reminder that the Taliban commanders in Quetta see this as their last opportunity to demonstrate their capability whilst NATO forces are still on the ground. But it is the local government in Helmand that is in the ascendancy in winning hearts and minds of the people.
The reason is a simple one – government is now in the lead on providing security and provides a reasonably good package of basic services. The Taliban simply do not have a credible alternative offer. In answer to the question: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “If the Taliban were to return to power and govern Afghanistan, it would be a good thing for the people and the country?” In April 2011 19% of people agreed with this statement. In April 2013 only 5% of people agree.
The biggest risk is one of eroding confidence as Afghans fear for the future when the NATO mission ends in December 2014.
At that point, we do not simply turn our collective backs on Afghanistan. Its international friends have made strong commitments for the long-term at the summits in Chicago and Tokyo. These confirmed significant tangible long-term support, conditional on Afghanistan delivering on its own commitments.
Central to this will be a willingness of Kabul to deliver on its commitment for strong local government which can connect with citizens.
Thanks Catriona, couldn’t agree more ..
HMEP is designed to improve the delivery and effectiveness of stabilisation and development programmes in Helmand. Since 2009, HMEP has helped PRT/DFID to target its support to the Afghanistan National Development Strategy and the Helmand Plan.
The Helmand Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (HMEP) have conducted ten ‘waves’ of surveys, accessing head of households in districts across Helmand.
The data in my blog post is from the HMEP head of household survey. In April 2011 (wave 3), 742 of the 4024 male heads of household interviewed said they would welcome the return of the Taliban. In February 2013 (wave 10), only 210 of 4087 respondents agreed. HMEP introduced additional external validation procedures in 2012 to supplement the internal validation procedures already implemented by ACSOR (the company who conducts the survey in districts in Helmand).
HMEP surveys show that the population of Helmand have similar priorities to those of many communities; concerns about socio-economic issues and improvement are at the top of the list. In the beginning of 2013, improvements to education and health services took top priority, surpassing reconstruction for the first time in a year. Issues relating to improvements to the economy have also gained in importance, whilst security-related priorities have remained relatively stable.
The HMEP website states that “While extremely useful as an indicative estimate of opinions, the absolute values of data from the HMEP survey should be used with great caution until they can be calibrated more completely for social desirability and other possible sources of bias. However, they should be reliable for inference about changes across districts and subjects, and for trends over time.”
I am intrigued by this passage, which I cite in full: The reason is a simple one – government is now in the lead on providing security and provides a reasonably good package of basic services. The Taliban simply do not have a credible alternative offer. In answer to the question: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “If the Taliban were to return to power and govern Afghanistan, it would be a good thing for the people and the country?” In April 2011 19% of people agreed with this statement. In April 2013 only 5% of people agree.
Have you a link to this polling? Who and how many people were spoken to? Were any women included?
This is encouraging – some optimism about the prospects, though rightly hedged with caution. I feel quite strongly about this: there is far too much UK-based armchair punditry that just asserts that it will all go wrong after 2014. The naysayers just can’t imagine that Afghans might want the same things as everyone else: peace, security, justice, basic services and the means to make a legitimate living. I really hope these efforts to build democracy and accountability continue to bear fruit. how many of those declaring it has all been a tragic waste know there is now only 5% support for the Taliban?